Vikings-Jets preview, predictions: Can Minnesota best Aaron Rodgers in London? (2024)

LONDON — If the first 24 hours across the pond have taught us anything, this massive city will be littered in purple and gold on Sunday.

Thousands of Minnesota Vikings fans have seemingly made the trip to London to watch their 4-0 team face off against the New York Jets. The Vikings players and coaches themselves arrived Friday, practiced and will have a walk-through at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Saturday.

What should you expect from Minnesota’s matchup with future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers? As always, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview.

Quality sleep is always part of getting our guys right for Sunday. When it comes to playing in London, it's even more important.

💤: @SleepNumber pic.twitter.com/toDbY6lpqi

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— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) October 4, 2024

What I’m watching

Lewis: Sam Darnold. Neither his former teammates nor his coaches are surprised by what the quarterback has done in the first four weeks. Darnold ranks first in the NFL in touchdowns, first in passer rating and second in yards per attempt. The eye test matches those numbers, too. But he hasn’t been perfect.

His turnover-per-play rate is higher than all but seven qualified quarterbacks. He has also only attempted 12 tight-window throws, according to Next Gen Stats, which is simultaneously a testament to both the Vikings system’s design and his receivers’ ability to separate. This weekend, he plays the team that drafted him third — the team that, even if Darnold won’t say it, did not develop him optimally. How will he look in his first showcase game of the season? Can he and the Vikings continue their torrid start? Darnold’s play feels like the juiciest layer to this game.

Krawczynski: Stephon Gilmore. What a start for this guy, who is showing that training camp is entirely overrated. He has stepped in and given the Vikings everything they could possibly ask for at one of their thinnest positions. The pass rush has been outstanding. Blake Cashman is tackling like a madman. But Gilmore has quietly gone about his business and locked down his spot. I would imagine he will see plenty of time on Garrett Wilson. If he can stay on top of that, I don’t see how the Jets hurt the Vikings defense.

Biggest concerns

Lewis: Rodgers’ mind. Earlier this week, speaking with Vikings play-by-play voice Paul Allen, Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell described Rodgers as a “supercomputer” on the field. Rodgers dissects defenses pre- and post-snap at a level most cannot. But he also has developed a bevy of hand signals and on-the-fly adjustments to use when needed. Interestingly, the Vikings defense deploys a similar approach. Coordinator Brian Flores gives players the latitude to make decisions on the field — and to check when the offense checks. Most of the time, quarterbacks can’t counter-check or aren’t savvy enough to even try. Rodgers can and is, which should make this battle fascinating.

Krawczynski: London. The beer over there is warm, but it packs a punch. Jet lag is no joke. The food is terrible. And have you watched “Industry” on HBO? Seems like there’s temptation around every corner out there. But seriously, I just don’t trust these London games.

The trip is long. Many times friends and family are coming along for the experience, which brings another stressor. There will be plenty of Vikings fans there, but it’s a neutral site, so there’s just a different overall atmosphere. Things can go off the tracks for a million reasons. If the Vikings can block all of that stuff out and just focus on the game itself, they should be fine.

Most interesting matchup

Lewis: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor vs. Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed and Michael Carter II. You could argue that this is best on best, the most dynamic receiving corps in the NFL facing off against the most up-for-the-challenge cornerback group. The Vikings are averaging 8.9 yards per play via the pass this season, second-most in the NFL. The Jets, meanwhile, are only allowing 5.6 yards per play via the pass, which is also second-best in the NFL.

Gardner (rightfully) receives most of the acclaim, but Reed and Carter hold their own as his wingmen. Few NFL teams play with more single-high coverages because few NFL teams trust their cornerbacks as much as the Jets do. You don’t have to be an expert to know how confident O’Connell (rightfully) is in his pass game. This should be a true litmus test for both sides.

Krawczynski: Kevin O’Connell vs. Robert Saleh. This should be a wipeout. The Vikings have emerged as one of the best-coached teams in the entire league, if not the very best. O’Connell has had his team prepared every week to start strong and be ready for what’s coming. He may be even more locked in this week while dealing with the headache that is the London trip following the shakiness of that second half against Green Bay. Along with Flores on the defensive side, the Vikings should hold an overwhelming advantage in the coaching department against Saleh and his staff. The better-prepared team usually wins.

Most interesting storyline

Lewis: The chance to start 5-0. Only three Vikings teams have done it since the turn of the century. Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss ripped through defenses in 2003. Brett Favre’s arrival brought mayhem in 2009. Sam Bradford shined at the beginning of the 2016 season. The point is this rarely happens, especially amid what was expected to be a transition season. Beating the Jets would further stamp a coaching staff and roster that is well-suited for a serious playoff run. Rodgers differs from most quarterbacks, and the London experience challenges teams in a different way. Knock off New York, and the Vikings will enter the bye week with a vibe of undeniability.

Krawczynski: The Vikings may only be getting better after this week. It has been an incredible start to the season, one few saw coming. But if they can beat the Jets and then get through the bye, T.J. Hockenson’s return to the lineup looms in the not-too-distant future. We may only be seeing the beginning of this team’s best football. Think of what Darnold and O’Connell will be able to do with a legit downfield threat at the tight end spot. Things could get really interesting.

How these teams match up analytically

Here is where each team ranks in the following categories, using explosive-play rate for explosiveness and success rate for efficiency:

Predictions

Lewis: Vikings 17, Jets 14. If it weren’t for the time change and the travel, I’d feel more confident. Minnesota’s offense has been much more in sync than New York’s, and the Vikings defense is more well-rounded. Rodgers’ smarts may ultimately be the equalizer. Jets backup running back Braelon Allen has my attention. Wilson might even be due for a breakout game. But the Vikings’ coaching advantage just feels like too much.

Krawczynski: Vikings 27, Jets 17. Maybe I’m a prisoner of the moment, but I trust the Vikings much more than I do the Jets right now. It feels like they are teetering a little bit, while the Vikings just keep marching along. If they get off to a fast start, get after Rodgers and put some early points on the board, I can see this one getting a bit out of hand.

(Photo of Justin Jefferson and Sauce Gardner: David Berding / Getty Images)